My research shows and quantifies that had it not been for #austerity, the #EUReferendum would unlikely to have yielded an victory for #Leave. A lot of #Leave voting - between 3-9 percentage points was #protestvoting.

In subsequent work this interpretation was confirmed e.g. in
"Who is not voting for #Brexit anymore?" which is joint work with my student Eleonora Alabrese (who is on the job market this year)
bit.ly/3GiLgrH

The narrative around the #EUReferendum has been a very confusing one..

In the paper, I use individual-level panel data and data on all electoral contests in the UK to document that places and people more exposed to #austerity were more likely to vote #UKIP or express views associated with #protestvoting.

This was a perceived threat to the #Conservatives as it involved numerous defections resulting in the #Tories internal struggles to arise.

Due to the loud voices in the Tory party, this resulted in the demand for an #EUReferendum to become louder....