@JenRubin gives 5 reasons to ignore the #polling around 2024 US elections

"I don’t write about polls. You shouldn’t bother with them, either".

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/10/pollings-unrealistic-coverage/

#Trump #GOP #Biden #Psephology

@sorenhave

No. It's because they are trying to stay in power by getting votes from a population in which a majority are primarily concerned with making ends meet in the short term, and a significant minority who are selfish and greedy above all.

#Psephology

The origin of psephology has a connection to cricket scores, and hence the term "swing" in election results.

"In 1945 David Butler, a 20-year-old Oxford undergraduate, founded modern electoral science by applying the rudimentary statistics he honed on cricket scores to that year’s general election. He turned raw ballot tallies into percentages, and then calculated the shift in parties’ vote shares. He called this “swing”."

#TheEconomist #psephology

https://www.economist.com/britain/2023/04/05/national-swing-man-the-british-electorates-new-old-tribe

Nice & interesting interview with our insanely-intelligent super-talented peerless-psephologist, Antony Green.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/i-asked-antony-green-who-would-win-the-nsw-election-and-how-he-got-his-shiner-20230309-p5cqqr.html

Kudos also for the corny Dad-joke at the bottom.

#auspol #psephology

Although I don't think I'll be as interested in the next UK General Election as the last two, I am already looking at signs that it will not be as plain sailing as media/pollsters suggest. That's the thing about #Psephology, you look at trends too and background noise.

@adrianfry @therightarticle #Labour is and has been a #neoliberal party, not a #socialist party for several decades. They have little understanding of #economics. They have no story to sell, no prophetic voice, no true leadership. Following the whims of #psephology directs us to lowest common-denominator. UK is set on a course of self-destruction with no Voice in the wilderness!

I’m new here. Interested in #adelaide #politics #psephology #climate #renewables #highered #australia