The continued positive #inflation and #labor market news has led us to cut our estimated 12-month US #recession probability further to 15%, down 5pp from our prior estimate, notes @GoldmanSachs

(#recession in euro area is deepening) Heiner Flassbeck & Friederike Spiecker: As long as the basic setup of high interest rates and a #deflationary price trend at the level of domestic producers remains in place, there is no recovery in sight, chart https://tinyurl.com/yt64ccp4

"""
Despite calls to deleverage the global economy to reduce systemic risk, global debt has increased from 213% of global GDP to 318% today.

In 2008, the general conclusion was that debt levels were way too high, and should be paid down in order to make the world a more stable place. Instead, Governments and corporations have continued to pile on debt. They have not learned the lesson of 2008.
"""

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4236300-debt-levels-learned-lessons-of-2008

#debt #economics #recession #depression

A “shallow #trade #recession” is in store, acc. to @OxfordEconomics , which sees volumes dropping 1.5% this year before rebounding 2.3% next year, chart via @economics https://tinyurl.com/mu57jhxu

Persistent macro headwinds could delay Bitcoin bull market — ARK Invest - Several macroeconomic indicators suggest that bearish headwinds c... - https://cointelegraph.com/news/persistent-macro-headwinds-could-delay-bitcoin-bull-market-ark-invest #recession #markets #cathie #macro #sales #etf #ark #gdp

US #recession ? --- UST yield curve, 2y10y spread, chart @BloombergTV

Goldman Sachs lowered its estimate of US #recession probability. Jan Hatzius: “Continued positive inflation and labor market news has led us to cut our estimated 12-month US recession probability further to 15%, down 5pp from our prior estimate,” chart @economics http://tinyurl.com/y6uzaf3x

#Jobs are up, #wages less so – and lower #purchasingpower could still lead the US into a #recession
https://www.alternet.org/jobs-are-up-wages-less-so-and-lower-purchasing-power-could-still-lead-the-us-into-a-recession/
#workforce #inflation #capitalism

After 25+ years of:

#war #division #hate #recession #rascism #plague #climatecrisis #energytransition #greed and #fascism in the #unitedstates ...

My money is on "stability" in #election2024. Americans want less drama, more results.

If you are a chaos agent, your time of influence will have passed and you failed.

#Prediction
#anarchism

If you're at all surprised that the UK now looks to be heading into a #recession (signalled by a range of 'lead indicators'), you've not been paying attention...

The Bank of England has been pretty explicit: a recession is a 'price worth paying' to squeeze #inflation out of the UK's economic system.

But (& I'll say it again) the price is very much not being paid by the people in Threadneedle St, & their chums... for them, handily, the price is paid by people that don't know or care about!

Almost every US #recession since 1955 has been preceded by such a curve shape, though by mid-2023, the downturn had failed to materialize. UST yield curve has been #inverted for more than a year.

#PCE measures also revealed a revival in #consumer spending. That raises hopes for a soft landing, something that would hurt those who have piled in to longer-dated USTs on expectations of a #recession - chart @GarfieldR1966

But it says little about the prospects for #inflation or the likelihood of #recession ...

Aha, the wage-price spiral narrative of #inflation is back (but, of course, really never really went away);

so while in times of inflationary pressures, firms 'maintaining' profits is a good thing, #workers maintaining wages (in real terms) is something that must be squeezed out of the system:

#recession ahoy!!

As always the price to be paid to 'beat' inflation is measured in the wellbeing (or lack thereof) of the normal workers & their families.

#classwar indeed!

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/29/central-banks-will-push-economies-into-recession-says-jeremy-hunt-adviser-karen-ward

Oh, Germany we forgive you,
For the winter recession that blew,
The second quarter, no growth,
But you fought and made it through,
Strongest of the European crew!

#germany #economicgrowth #recession #europe #ode #poetry

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-economy-stagnates-q2-after-winter-recession-2023-08-25/

#Economicactivity in #Europe is decreasing, primarily in the manufacturing and services sectors #Recession #Collapse

https://www.naturalnews.com/2023-08-24-data-europe-economy-lowest-level-since-pandemic.html

You’re #Not #Imagining It #Job #Hunting Is #Getting_Worse!!

There was a time, not too long ago, when employers were in such a rush to hire workers that they were doing anything they could to make it easier for people to apply.

#That_time_has_PASSED.

Job hunting was becoming #more_miserable even #before the #pandemic, as the amount of time companies took to hire stretched out and as they asked candidates to undergo #more and #more interviews. #Labor_shortages during the pandemic gave a temporary reprieve, but now, as #fears about a #recession grow, companies are going back to their #old_habits of putting candidates through a #grueling_process.

“It’s #frustrating and tiring—job hunting has never been #this_hard,” says Michael Cook, who was laid off from a gaming company in December after more than a decade in the professional labor market, and who has applied to hundreds of jobs since. One company had him go through six rounds of interviews over multiple months; another asked him to create a project that they then used on their website but didn’t pay him for his work; others sent him take-home tests or asked him to record videos of himself answering pre-set questions. He has not received any offers.

Part of the difficulty stems from a tightening labor market especially in fields like tech that have had hundreds of thousands of layoffs in the last nine months. There is now, on average, one job opening for every two applicants on LinkedIn, a big change from early 2022, when there was one job opening per applicant on average.

1. You’re Not Imagining It—Job Hunting Is Getting Worse

https://time.com/6287012/why-finding-job-is-difficult/

2. #Judas_Priest - You've Got Another Thing Coming (Video) Judas Priest's official music video for 'You've Got Another Thing Comin'

* #NO_INTERVIEWS
* #ANYONE_CAN_WORK (WORLDWIDE COVERAGE)
* ALL COUNTRIES WELCOMED--NO EXCLUSION ;)
* GET PAID WHAT YOU ARE WORTH!
* EARN #BOOYA_BUCKS #USD --WHILE LEARNING ON THE JOB!:)
* #NEVER A #LAYOFF;
* #RECESSION_PROOF;)!!

POWER TO THE PEOPLE!

https://youtu.be/9yMTIRM8WTU

JOBS FOR ALL WORLDWIDE!

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IS #germany again the "sick man" of #europe?

Having barely "escaped" #recession , the #german #economy is on track to be the "only" major #country to "shrink" this #year

Blamed on "sluggish" #global #growth, causing #exports to fall, and "soaring" #inflation, courtesy #putin, #deutschland faces a #crisis, partly of its own making

For the sake of the #world, let us hope the #germans "recover", 'coz we all know what happened the last time they were in the doldrums

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-25/german-economy-stalled-in-second-quarter-weighed-down-by-trade?utm_source=flipboard&utm_content=topic%2Ffinance&sref=K4p0BglU

US GDP estimate @AtlantaFed 3Q2023: 5.8% (SAAR) - The strong economic momentum suggests the US should avoid a #recession in 2023 and has helped push yields higher, chart @JPMorganAM

Meanwhile, in the real world under President #Biden's leadership: "CBS News analysis finds fewer #Americans are expecting #recession now" https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fewer-americans-are-expecting-recession-now-cbs-news-analysis/