Fascinating #OpenAccess paper by Colyvan, Regan and Ferson (2001) on the Shonubi case and the reference class problem (from probability theory) in law: http://colyvan.com/papers/shonubi.pdf

Concerned a drug courier whose sentence was significantly increased based on statistical estimates of the quantities of drugs that other drug couriers had smuggled over the years.

#Law #Shonubi #Statistics #ReferenceClassProblem #CriminalLaw

For researchers, “the population in question is hypothetical,…it could be defined in many ways, and…the first to come to mind may be quite misleading” (Fisher, 1956, p. 78).

#Stats
#Statistics
#Populations
#Fisher
#ReferenceClassProblem

See also Rubin (2020): https://doi.org/10.1007/s13194-020-00309-6

For researchers, “the population in question is hypothetical,…it could be defined in many ways, and…the first to come to mind may be quite misleading.” (Fisher, 1956, p. 78).

#stats
#statistics
#Fisher
#populations
#ReferenceClassProblem