Daniele de Rigo · @dderigo
133 followers · 157 posts · Server hostux.social1/
On the myth of an unreasonably precise #ReturnPeriod in #CoupledHumanAndNaturalSystems (CHANS) under the #ClimateChange and highly uncertain #TippingPoints "when earth systems suddenly tip into alternate semisteady states" [1]
"common #CognitiveBiases complicate the understanding of #probability [...] For instance, when lacking or considering historical data, people tend to base their estimations of probability on what they have recently experienced" [1]
#returnperiod #coupledhumanandnaturalsystems #ClimateChange #tippingpoints #cognitivebiases #probability #preciselyincorrect #uncertainty