American Naturalist · @ASNAmNat
1969 followers · 189 posts · Server ecoevo.social

Spatial is a key feature of and outbreaks and major source of instability, but little is known about how affects it. Walter et al. show using how seasonality in processes and drivers alters .

Read now ahead of print! journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1

#synchrony #pest #disease #seasonality #theoreticalmodels #population #environmental

Last updated 1 year ago

Eric's Risk Assessment · @EricCarroll
2373 followers · 4353 posts · Server zeroes.ca

Today is IS NOT THE day, for all who celebrate.

Maybe this will be a thread, there are so many ways to celebrate.

1/ Waiting for Seasonality

Like Godot is much discussed, but is likely to never arrive.

Why?

a. SARS2 R >>> 1 & influenza R<2
b. SARS2 mass transmission continues

Influenza R range means transmission falls off fast when people seperate, like getting outdoors in good weather. Conversely it gets more airborne transmission opportunity when clustering together indoors. Low R plus indoor clustering plus airborne transmission drives "seasonality" effect.

With SARS2 R in measles territory or above, and the documented ability for airborne superspreader events, viral kinetics of variants is more determinant of waves: opportunity and ability to transmit, ACE2 binding, immune evasion and level of societal mitigations against airborne transmission. Plus we have documented near field outdoor transmission.

@tjradcliffe has a nice Gaussian fit model that shows the lack of

There is zero evidence that this will change. No evidence exists that SARS2 will become like influenza in transmission capability or disease effects. Not one paper.

As long as mass transmission continues, and the resulting ongoing evolution of SARS2 in the ACE2 binding vs immune evasiveness spaces continues, this "waiting for seasonality" is going to take a long while.

Seasonality, like Godot, will continue to be reported on with explosions of technical sounding justifications, claimed to be coming soon, hoped for, but very probably never arrive.

#SARS2 #flu #seasonality

Last updated 1 year ago

IT News · @itnewsbot
3595 followers · 269437 posts · Server schleuss.online

New SARS-CoV-2 variant gains dominance in US amid mild summer COVID wave - Enlarge (credit: Getty | Thomas Trutschel)

For a fourth consec... - arstechnica.com/?p=1959483 -cov-2 -19

#fda #cdc #summer #deaths #health #omicron #vaccines #pandemic #covid #wastewater #subvariant #sars #seasonality #testpositivity #hospitalizations

Last updated 1 year ago

GregCocks · @GregCocks
305 followers · 396 posts · Server techhub.social
JonasR · @JonasR
75 followers · 621 posts · Server muenchen.social

COVID's future: mini-waves rather than seasonal surges

Three years after the start of the pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 shows no signs of settling into a seasonal pattern of spread, like influenza has.

nature.com/articles/d41586-023

#covid #COVID19 #SarsCoV2 #corona #wave #seasonality #influenza #xbb116

Last updated 1 year ago

Marine fungal seasonal dynamics "A 17-year time-series of fungal
environmental DNA from a coastal marine
ecosystem reveals long-term seasonalscale and inter-annual diversity patterns" royalsocietypublishing.org/doi

#fungi #mycology #marine #eDNA #seasonality

Last updated 2 years ago

Tzigane · @tzigane
2 followers · 6 posts · Server sfba.social

Beets are a versatile vegetable and often under-appreciated. They are available year-round in the . You can enjoy the entire plant of root and greens in many ways. More info about this lovely veg can be found by clicking the link in my bio.

#sanfranciscofoodshed #locavore #localvore #beet #beets #farmersmarket #eatlocal #shoplocal #shoplocaleatlocal #sustainableeating #seasonality #vegetableinseasonjanuary

Last updated 2 years ago

Tzigane · @tzigane
2 followers · 6 posts · Server sfba.social

In season and available now in the is the amazing Cherimoya aka the Custard Apple. A delightful creamy fruit grown in our it is a brilliant brrakfast or dessert on its own but can also be made into sorbet or added to salads and smoothies to show off its tropical flavor.

#sfbay #foodshed #localvore #locavore #cherimoya #custardapple #seasonaleating #seasonality #shoplocal #eatlocal #eatfreshandlocal #farmersmarket

Last updated 2 years ago

SaturniusMons :verified: · @SaturniusMons
36 followers · 1070 posts · Server lor.sh

RT @ANZ_Research@twitter.com

We have published our analysis on the seasonal patterns of Asian currencies in each month of the year, spanning 2000-2022. These trends will complement fundamental and technical analysis when formulating trading strategies. ow.ly/NP2i50MiQb3

🐦🔗: twitter.com/ANZ_Research/statu

#seasonality #fx #usd #cny #THB

Last updated 2 years ago

Simon Greenhill · @simon
326 followers · 74 posts · Server mastodon.nz

🤔skeptical
---
RT @Journal_EHS
Signatures of geography, climate and foliage on given names of baby girls bit.ly/3FHy3a4.

By Raymond B. Huey and Donald B. Miles


twitter.com/Journal_EHS/status

#academictwitter #publishing #journal #openaccess #onomastics #seasonality

Last updated 2 years ago

Elizabeth Wrigley-Field · @wrigleyfield
964 followers · 200 posts · Server fediscience.org

Do we know anything about how birth affects development in climates where is only common at certain times of year?

#outdoorplay #microbiome #seasonality

Last updated 2 years ago

Austin Beeman · @austinbeeman
35 followers · 16 posts · Server epicure.social

Theo Zierock of Agricola Foradori on Seasonality in Agriculture.

*Testing native vertical video on this platform.

#wine #agriculture #seasonality #biodynamic #italianwine #naturalwine

Last updated 2 years ago

Tamsin Lewis · @Passamezzo
9 followers · 1 posts · Server historians.social

New for a new instance...

I'm a musician and historian. Interested in study, using , words and to examine aspects of social history and .

I direct the ensemble Passamezzo, and work as a historical consultant for film, television and theatre.

FRHistS and associate lecturer in art and music at the Courtauld Institute.

#introduction #interdisciplinary #music #song #earlymodern #seasonality #earlymusic #renaissance

Last updated 2 years ago

Sampath Pāṇini ® 🇺🇸 ✅ · @paninid
198 followers · 1134 posts · Server mastodon.world

“Business moves fast”…up until the week of Thanksgiving, and then it slows to a crawl.

#business #seasonality #fast #slow

Last updated 2 years ago

Christian John · @JepsonNomad
10 followers · 1 posts · Server ecoevo.social

Hi friends: I'm a ecologist studying , , and . Currently working with the Pile at UCSB/MCR on land-sea connections (can we make a hashtag?) and bleaching; PhD from Post lab at UCD w/ , , and a lot of . Mostly science content but occasionally coffee roasting, breadmaking, woodworking, and photography.

#climatechange #biodiversity #seasonality #spacetime #LandSea #coral #BighornSheep #migration #PlantPhenology #remotesensing

Last updated 2 years ago

Jared Davis · @jared
82 followers · 151 posts · Server mathstodon.xyz

"Holt-Winters Forecasting for Developers" by Gregory Trubetskoy.

grisha.org/blog/2016/01/29/tri

Also known as triple-exponential smoothing, Holt-Winters gives a simple algorithm to metrics under a assumption. Trubetskoy does a nice job summarizing the mathematics and implementations in this three part blog series

#python #seasonality #timeseries #forecast

Last updated 2 years ago