Spatial #synchrony is a key feature of #pest and #disease outbreaks and major source of instability, but little is known about how #seasonality affects it. Walter et al. show using #theoreticalModels how seasonality in #population processes and #environmental drivers alters #synchrony.

Read now ahead of print! https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/725804

Today is #SARS2 IS NOT THE #FLU day, for all who celebrate.

Maybe this will be a thread, there are so many ways to celebrate.

1/ Waiting for Seasonality

Like Godot #SARS2 #seasonality is much discussed, but is likely to never arrive.

Why?

a. SARS2 R >>> 1 & influenza R<2
b. SARS2 mass transmission continues

Influenza R range means transmission falls off fast when people seperate, like getting outdoors in good weather. Conversely it gets more airborne transmission opportunity when clustering together indoors. Low R plus indoor clustering plus airborne transmission drives "seasonality" effect.

With SARS2 R in measles territory or above, and the documented ability for airborne superspreader events, viral kinetics of variants is more determinant of waves: opportunity and ability to transmit, ACE2 binding, immune evasion and level of societal mitigations against airborne transmission. Plus we have documented near field outdoor transmission.

@tjradcliffe has a nice Gaussian fit model that shows the lack of #seasonality

There is zero evidence that this will change. No evidence exists that SARS2 will become like influenza in transmission capability or disease effects. Not one paper.

As long as mass transmission continues, and the resulting ongoing evolution of SARS2 in the ACE2 binding vs immune evasiveness spaces continues, this "waiting for seasonality" is going to take a long while.

Seasonality, like Godot, will continue to be reported on with explosions of technical sounding justifications, claimed to be coming soon, hoped for, but very probably never arrive.

New SARS-CoV-2 variant gains dominance in US amid mild summer COVID wave - Enlarge (credit: Getty | Thomas Trutschel)

For a fourth consec... - https://arstechnica.com/?p=1959483 #hospitalizations #testpositivity #seasonality #sars-cov-2 #subvariant #wastewater #covid-19 #pandemic #vaccines #omicron #health #deaths #summer #cdc #fda

56 Million-Year-Old Eocene Global Warming May Indicate A Wetter Future
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https://phys.org/news/2023-06-million-year-old-eocene-global-wetter-future.html <-- shared technical article
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https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2022PA004542 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #modeling #model #climatechange #data #climatemodeling #Eocene #global #DeepMIP #wetanddry #water #hydrology #rainfall #precipitation #projections #hydroclimate #subtropics #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #future #experience #events #globalwarming #extremeweather #seasonality #ecosystems

COVID's future: mini-waves rather than seasonal surges

Three years after the start of the pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 shows no signs of settling into a seasonal pattern of spread, like influenza has.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01437-8

#Covid #Covid19 #SARSCov2 #Corona #Wave #seasonality #influenza #xbb116

Marine fungal seasonal dynamics "A 17-year time-series of fungal
environmental DNA from a coastal marine
ecosystem reveals long-term seasonalscale and inter-annual diversity patterns" https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2022.2129 #fungi #mycology #marine #eDNA #seasonality

Beets are a versatile vegetable and often under-appreciated. They are available year-round in the #sanfranciscofoodshed. You can enjoy the entire plant of root and greens in many ways. More info about this lovely veg can be found by clicking the link in my bio. #locavore #localvore #beet #beets #farmersmarket #eatlocal #shoplocal #shoplocaleatlocal #sustainableeating #seasonality #vegetableinseasonjanuary

In season and available now in the #sfbay is the amazing Cherimoya aka the Custard Apple. A delightful creamy fruit grown in our #foodshed it is a brilliant brrakfast or dessert on its own but can also be made into sorbet or added to salads and smoothies to show off its tropical flavor. #localvore #locavore #cherimoya #custardapple #seasonaleating #seasonality #shoplocal #eatlocal #eatfreshandlocal #farmersmarket

RT @ANZ_Research@twitter.com

We have published our analysis on the seasonal patterns of Asian currencies in each month of the year, spanning 2000-2022. These #seasonality trends will complement fundamental and technical analysis when formulating #FX trading strategies. #USD #CNY #THB http://ow.ly/NP2i50MiQb3

🐦🔗: https://twitter.com/ANZ_Research/status/1610901649974861824

🤔skeptical
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RT @Journal_EHS
Signatures of geography, climate and foliage on given names of baby girls https://bit.ly/3FHy3a4.

By Raymond B. Huey and Donald B. Miles

#AcademicTwitter #publishing #journal #OpenAccess #onomastics #seasonality
https://twitter.com/Journal_EHS/status/1605247919745015810

Do we know anything about how birth #seasonality affects #microbiome development in climates where #OutdoorPlay is only common at certain times of year?

Theo Zierock of Agricola Foradori on Seasonality in Agriculture.

*Testing native vertical video on this platform.

#wine #agriculture #seasonality #biodynamic #italianwine #naturalwine

New #introduction for a new instance...

I'm a musician and historian. Interested in #interdisciplinary study, using #music, words and #song to examine aspects of #earlymodern social history and #seasonality.

I direct the #earlymusic ensemble Passamezzo, and work as a historical consultant for film, television and theatre.

FRHistS and associate lecturer in #renaissance art and music at the Courtauld Institute.

“Business moves fast”…up until the week of Thanksgiving, and then it slows to a crawl.

#business #seasonality #fast #slow

Hi friends: I'm a #ClimateChange ecologist studying #biodiversity, #seasonality, and #spacetime. Currently working with the Pile at UCSB/MCR on land-sea connections (can we make #LandSea a hashtag?) and #coral bleaching; PhD from Post lab at UCD w/ #BighornSheep #migration, #PlantPhenology, and a lot of #RemoteSensing. Mostly science content but occasionally coffee roasting, breadmaking, woodworking, and photography.

"Holt-Winters Forecasting for Developers" by Gregory Trubetskoy.

https://grisha.org/blog/2016/01/29/triple-exponential-smoothing-forecasting/

Also known as triple-exponential smoothing, Holt-Winters gives a simple algorithm to #forecast #timeseries metrics under a #seasonality assumption. Trubetskoy does a nice job summarizing the mathematics and #python implementations in this three part blog series