@esmichelson
I read in a #paleoclimate paper that #seaice and lack thereof accelerates #permafrost thaw in the #Arctic.
The ice is a regional coolant, I assume.

And in another paper: that lack if autumn ice in the Barents Sea, between Norway and Svalbard and a bit to the east,
coincides with #SuddenStratosphericWarming in the following winter or spring. When the polar vortex breaks up in SSW, it "laps up" heat from lower latitudes and funnels it to the Arctic.
WHERE the lapping funnel appears follows a certain enforced pattern, ie is not happenstance,
l assume. And I assume, one location is that land mass next to Barents Sea.

The decade 2013 to 2022 had at least 4 SSW that I know of from the top of my head. 3 of which in the years 2020, 2021 and 2022. So likely coinciding with low sea ice in Barents Sea = less coolant in that region.

It's a bit roundabout, but it's how I explain it to myself.

P.S. The SSW in winter is not responsible for low sea ice in autumn,
and the SSW is not responsible for May temperature anomalies.
Why I mention SSW: as a symptom of something that also makes anomaly on Arctic land mass grow: the loss of sea ice.

@ZLabe

You know what's missing in #scicomm ? A repeated reminder why losing #Arctic #seaice is so bad.
Am just reading again something about #WillSteffen where he mentions it and had to stop and think hard: why is that bad, again?

Not only do #PolarBear cubs lose their playgrounds for growing up on when summer seaice dwindles and eventually, is gone.
We lose the known weather patterns, too. Bad for agriculture. *

Bad for human and animal health, including insects, when heatwave length and heatwave occurrence increase. Pollinators lose fertility in heatwaves; offspring conceived in heatwaves has yet lower fertility, and so on.
Stationary heat in In Alaska's and Canada's warmed-up rivers is bad news for salmon – and that is bad news for other animals which used to feed on them.

With less sea ice, #permafrost thaw also speeds up. ...

When the #jetstream slows down in summer in lower temperature difference from pole to equator due to lack of seaice,
stationary heat evaporates water from boreal forest and causes bigger fires. So we lose a carbon sink. And in Siberian cities but also in Moscow, the air in summer becomes unbreathable from the smoke.

In the permafrost regions, the ignited peat from a fire started in summer heatwaves can smoulder on through winter under the snow, and burn again in earnest next spring, hot or not. #GhostFire

* A PNAS paper last year explained that the Azores high expands then, and pushes the Iceland low AND its rains, further North. Regions fall dry which used to get their summer rain from the Iceland low (or even winter snow – when the Azore high expands in winter but due to #AMOC slowdown).
Northern Italy, France, the Alpes, Benelux, Germany... dry when we lose sea ice.

And northern Europe receives more rain. Maybe too much - causing flooding, esp. in cities and around deforested areas.

Not sure now about North Africa and Spain and Portugal. The Mediterranean IS influenced by the (then expanding) Azores high. But I don't know how and I don't know details of the Mediterranean's own "weather regions" and how they interact with Azores high expansion.

Arctic sea ice, and lack thereof, also impacts China's monsoon. But I forgot how.

Lastly, what I'm also not quite sure about, right now, is an interaction between lack of sea ice in the Barents Sea, La Nina, and the occurrence of #SuddenStratosphericWarming #SSW in winter. IIRC, a paper suggested statistical connection of the three but lacked an explanation for the potential cause.
After a SSW in winter, the polar vortex collapses and cold air leaps south. Then Texas' power grid falters and Europe has to turn up heating. If SSW occurs in spring, like last March 31st, and the year before, it kills the potentially already budding plants, like cherry trees.
If loss of sea ice does result in more frequent SSW, loss of crop increases.
Now, because that paper made the statistical connection between #LaNina, #BarentsSea ice, and SSW,
I add another paper (Matt England et al) to the mix: if AMOC slows down, they suggested last year, it causes a permanent La Nina state.

A permanent La Nina state, beyond its well-own implications in terms of drought or flooding in various world regions,
together with dwindling sea ice, would then increase the frequency of SSW events.
More cold snaps.
And more crop loss if the SSWs occur in spring.

Ha. I do remember quite a lot of stuff wrt Arctic sea ice. It's just hard to keep it all in short-term memory, tho, for when I'm reading or watching #clicomm scicomm.

I should condense what I know into succinct but complete bullet points I can memorize 😁

An interesting few weeks ahead on both sides of the Pond. #SSW #suddenstratosphericwarming

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/02/09/polar-vortex-sudden-stratospheric-warming/

With no significant #rainfall across much of the UK since mid January, and very little in the #forecast for the next 10 days, farmers, growers and water companies will be starting to get jittery!
The anticipated #suddenstratosphericwarming will likely result in a dry March too, and possibly a cold one.

@Ruth_Mottram @SkepticalScience

I've read it now, as well. So they don't explain the opposites, they just mention the cold bob as "warm blob" in the UTLS. There's ongoing discussion about whether or not the observational data of sea surface temperature does in actuality show the cold blob in recent decades and whether the cooling has stopped. But if the UTLS mirrors the blob as seen from satellites for the past 2 decades, I guess, this is a smoking gun for @rahmstorf and Levke Caesar no?

One other thing: the authors subtracted the 2 instances from their plots when the Southern Hemisphere had rare #SuddenStratosphericWarming – and found that the trend holds without data from those months, as well.
Wish they'd also had subtracted the 2 winter/spring #Arctic #ozone holes in 2011 and 2020 to see their effects on the trend. Both #OzoneHole are shown in this short video, alongside a normal year 2017. https://www.yewtu.be/watch?v=D3JaSkPThzI

According to ‘Austen’s Weather Obsessed’ we are on the way to “sudden stratospheric warming” which could bring severe cold weather to the U.K. from the East - but there are several key factors still to fall into place and it’s unlikely to happen before mid-February, if it happens at all.
#weather #polarvortex #suddenstratosphericwarming #winter2023 #meteorology
https://youtu.be/OKNwU3HsyHo

@MarkBrigham @Ruth_Mottram @globalecoguy

A search on scholar.google.com for the title in Ruth's link offers a a pdf https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/blog/s41558-020-00954-y.pdf
(and if scholar-google shows no free version it's worth a try to search on sci-hub)

But both, your link and Ruth's are 2yrs old. I read two more recent papers on #PolarVortex #SuddenStratosphericWarming. The events come in pairs and ~ coincide with #LaNina and low/no #SeaIce east of Jamal peninsula in late Oct /Nov.
2022: 3rd LaNina + 3rd #SSW in a row🤷🏼‍♀️

@globalecoguy
Maybe the jury is still out whether or not climate change affects cold spells or arctic spillover or #SuddenStratosphericWarming.

But I go with the LaNina correlation. We have low/no sea ice east of Jamal peninsula, the unusual 3rd #LaNina winter in a row, and the unusual 3rd winter with a #SSW 🤷🏼‍♀️

Going forward, #AMOCSlowdown may cause permanent LaNina acc to a new-ish paper. And together with LaNina's other civilisation-killing fallouts, that wd then also mean: SSW every year.

@globalecoguy
A newer paper corelated sea ice in autumn and La Nina with polar vortex events.
IIRC: low/no sea ice late October east of that long land tongue off Siberia plus La Nina in NH winter = #SuddenStratosphericWarming or a split like this year.

A split also occured in Dec 2010/Jan 2011; SSW occur more often and usually come (or soon "used to come"?) in pairs.

#LaNina plus low late-autumn #SeaIce seem to create pressure patterns over the arctic that induce #SSW or polar vortex splits.

Question for #windenergy #windkraft wizzards
IIRC, at the very beginning, wind rotors were mounted on immobile turbines, and later, mount tops got engineered to be flexible wrt wind flow direction.
Is that correct?
If so, approx which year did turbines get mobile?

Am asking bc I'm looking at 1959-2022 wind speeds @100m and papers re #Dunkelflaute. While wind in Germany usually flows east + north, sometimes direction is opposite (eg., when a #SuddenStratosphericWarming #SSW occurred in winter).