How probable is human #catastrophe or #extinction over the next century?

☢️ or 🦠 or 🤖 🟰 💀❓

Well, artificial intelligence, nuclear event and engineered pathogens seem to raise the highest concerns.

Check the full report recently published by the Forecasting Research Institute (#OpenAccess). They interviewed *superforecasters*, i.e. historically accurate forecasters on short-run questions, and *experts* on nuclear war, climate change, AI, biological risks, and existential risk more broadly. (Note: be aware that this is an north-american based report.)

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/635693acf15a3e2a14a56a4a/t/64abffe3f024747dd0e38d71/1688993798938/XPT.pdf

The results are fascinating. In general, the domain experts are more negative than the superforcasters: 20% and 6% versus 9% and 1% chances of catastrophe or extinction, respectively.

The Economist put forward a nice graphic with a summary of the results, divided by type of threat.

#future #AI #nuclear #pathogens #apocalypse #superforecasting

We are the only species that can contemplate its own demise (but that doesn't imply we want to; #superforecasting human #extinction):
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23785731/human-extinction-forecasting-superforecasters

What can we learn about making good #predictions from the 1800s? A few things...

https://person-al.github.io/%F0%9F%8C%B3/2021/08/19/predicting-the-effects-of-a-new-medium-is-hard.html?ref=mast

#Superforecaster #superforecasting #futurism #technology

What can we learn about making good #predictions from the 1800s? A few things...

https://person-al.github.io/%F0%9F%8C%B3/2021/08/19/predicting-the-effects-of-a-new-medium-is-hard.html?ref=mast

#Superforecaster #superforecasting #futurism #technology

Novels can predict wars 5 years in advance

https://person-al.github.io/%F0%9F%8C%B0/2022/06/28/novels-can-predict-geopolitical-conflict-5-years-in-advance.html

#literature #war #foreignPolicy #novel #politics #policy #forecast #superforecasting