@diggles_b I would also encourage people to go for it, but don't assume it's going to end well. Many others have have done so and failed. #SurvivorshipBias
@eniko @Jdreben Please note that the canonical picture of #SurvivorshipBias is an argument for building better planes, not for never taking off from the airfield
"So your observation regarding businesses may suffer from #SurvivorshipBias
Do you mean the people managing the business are more interested in protecting the business than the environment? (You'd think that would be self-evident - at least to those that have thought about it and are honest about it)
@edsuom I often use this one. #SurvivorshipBias is a powerful tonic. https://www.instagram.com/reel/CqnBnEJD5DP/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
RT @macroliter@twitter.com
“Armor is useless. Most planes make it back from enemy territory” #VaccinesWork #GetVaccinated #SurvivorshipBias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
🐦🔗: https://twitter.com/macroliter/status/1608297563010088960
#VaccinesWork #getvaccinated #survivorshipbias
An introduction and explanation of #SurvivorshipBias (or #SurvivalBias) can be found at Wiki Links: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
Fascinating stuff. And a great way to re-think how you interpret data.
#survivorshipbias #survivalbias
Survivorship Bias:
A drawing and description of a WW2 Allied plane, detailing where Nazi anti-aircraft fire had caused damage. Small red dots show where the plane was hit. It was first used to observe damage on returning planes as a way to add additional armor.
Hungarian-born, Jewish mathematician, Abraham Wald used #SurvivorshipBias to show logic error with this analysis.
Last week, when Saudi Arabia was down 1-0 at halftime, Hervé Renard (Saudi Arabia’s coach) gave an impassioned speech to his players that became viral after they made a comeback and defeated Argentina 2-1. Today, Saudi Arabi was also down 1-0 at halftime and I’m sure Renard gave another impassioned speech. But his team lost the game 2-0 and I suspect it won’t become viral.
Stories about winners aren’t blueprints for success, no matter how faithfully they recount “how he did it.”
100 billionaires all doing something in common isn’t a reliable signal if 500 million broke people also do the exact same thing.
#success #failure #survivorshipbias
It's very easy to con yourself into thinking you're a genius when the random fluctuations of the market means that your bet on some weird speculative asset pays off to the tune of millions.
What you don't see is the hundreds of other people who made just as well-informed bets as you did, who instead lost part or all of their investment.
They just don't post about it as much.
#survivorshipbias #selectionbias #stonks #cryptocurrency
#survivorshipbias „(deutsch etwa: Überlebensirrtum bzw. Verzerrung zugunsten der Überlebenden)“