FX: basis #swaps can be a good indicator of stress in USD funding markets, but CBs are wise to these problems and generally provide USD through funding lines at the first whiff of stress, chart @TS_Lombard

#Swaps traders are thus far holding steady the probability of an additional 25bp before year’s end. The pricing implies around a 50% chance of another raise before #Fed ’s #tightening cycle finally ends, and steady cuts next year, chart @JohnAuthers https://bloom.bg/2z71FfB

#GBP FX: #markets have had a big rethink about the outlook for #UK interest rates this year. #swaps markets are pricing in multiple further rate rises to a #peak of around 6.25% early next year, chart @FT bit.ly/3pEYadF

#euro #swaps markets are now pricing in a peak #ECB deposit rate of 3.9% by Dec, compared with projections of a peak of 3.7% in Oct. before its rate-setting meeting on June 15.

#Fed Funds futures: #swaps price in 0.25% of rate hike by the Fed in July 2023, chart @BloombergTV

Officials hope the scheme, which will initially provide access only to interest-rate #swaps for onshore renminbi Govt #bonds, will help to stem the outflows. Data shows that investors have dumped more than Rmb865bn ($126bn) worth of renminbi bonds since the start of 2022.

#Traders are clear in their conviction that this global #tightening cycle is about to end - #Swaps contracts show the average CB cash rate across DM markets is expected to be slightly lower in a year’s time than it is now, chart @GarfieldR1966

#Swaps indicate more than 200bp of #cuts by the end of 2024, an outcome that would bring #Fed ’s policy rate back down to around 3% from the current range of 4.75%-5%, chart @markets https://cutt.ly/n4SyyCz

swaps
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Even after #CPI print led traders to push up the odds for a 0.25% increase, #swaps markets continue to show expectations that there’s just one hike left in this cycle and it will still be more than reversed within 6-months, notes @GarfieldR1966

FX: #Swaps traders are now pricing a less than 1-in-2 chance the #Fed will hike by another 0.25% this cycle, after fully pricing in half-point hike in March less than one week ago, chart @markets https://cutt.ly/h85xdLJ

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Interest-rate #swaps Tuesday showed a shift in bets for the March 22 meeting: #Traders are betting that #Fed will raise the key borrowing costs by 100bp over the next 4 meetings to a peak just below 5.6%, chart @bq https://cutt.ly/l8FZyme

#euro area implied inflation prints from #inflation #swaps have risen significantly across the curve. Implied inflation prints have risen even more for shorter forwards, chart @SvendsenAnders @nordea

#euro area #inflation expectations measured by 5y5y #swaps - chart @BloombergTV

... with an effect on policy rate expectations: o/n index #swaps has shifted and there is a belief that #ECB could get to 4% ....

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With #Fed officials flagging the potential for even higher interest rates, it’s hard to see #equities sustaining the still-impressive gains they have posted so far this year. #swaps traders are now betting on a peak rate of 5.25%, chart @GarfieldR1966

#Fed #swaps are no longer fully pricing in a 25bp rate #cut this year and now imply a #peak policy rate of 5.27% in July 2023.