Schnell zur Hand hab ich Balkencharts aus Daten von Rodbell et al 2022 zum tropischen Gletscher Lake Junin in Südamerika.
Rodbells Team hat 700 Tausend Jahre Gletscher-Wuchs dort am Lake Junin nachgekartet. Die gesamte Zeit vom "Glacial Index" sieht man im oberen Chart. Das untere Chart zeigt den Ausschnitt ab 16500 vor Christus.
Et voila: im Jahr 1050 v Chr ist mit dem Gletscher was passiert. Aber wenn der Glacial Index zunimmt, wächst der Gletscher ^^
Passt also nicht zu meinen Friesen 300v Chr , die dem steigenden Meeresspiegel im Wattenmeer trotzen. #Tegtmeier

Vll kam das Wasser in Friesland aus dem 4.2ky event... Das war so eine Phase, wo vor 4200 Jahren jahrzehntelange Dürren im Mittelmeerraum vielen Kleinstkönigreichen den Garaus machte.
Vll hing dieser sogenannte 4.2ka Event ja mit etwas zusammen, das auch einen der Eisschilde betraf und zum Schmelzen brachte. Und 1500 Jahre später, nämlich in 300vChr, wurden dadurch Warften in Friesland notwendig.
Der lange Zeitverzug von 1500 Jahren würde mich jetzt in Antarktischen Eisbohrkernen nach einem Temperatur-Peak suchen lassen, weil ich ja grad gelesen (aber nicht unbedingt auch verstanden!) hab, dass es da einen unterschiedlich langen Zeitverzug im #SeaLevelRise gibt, je nachdem, welcher Eisschild von Hitze bzw. Schmelze betroffen ist.

Aber vll waren es ja Alpengletscher und der Himalaya, die im 4.2ka Event so viel abschmolzen, bis sie ab 300v Chr in Friesland die Warften nötig machten.
1500 Jahre Zeitverzug passt nun gar nicht zu dem grad Gelesenen, wo Bergeis ganz schnell zu Meeresspiegelanstieg führt.
Aber diese Berge liegen meteorologisch irgendwie signifikant in der Nähe von den untergegangenen Kleinstkönigreichen, sagt mein Bauch.

Mein Bauch sagt außerdem, dass es auch Grönlandeis gewesen sein kann, das die Friesen zum Aufschütten von Warften zwang. Vll wegen einer Phase mit stärkerem Golfstrom oder so.
Und was ist mit Südamerika-Eis? Also... jetzt muss ich echt mal gucken...

#Tegtmeier

Haha, they beat me to it https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/5422/
"Germany-wide time series of interpolated phenological observations of main crop types between 1993 and 2021"
From skimreading the new paper I think, they merely looked at (a fancy version of) average daily temperature for explanation, tho.

German met service DWD also hosts data by "stations" reporting phenological information like day of year of when half the apples on a tree are red or day of year when oaks show 50% of their new leaves: https://opendata.dwd.de/climate_environment/CDC/observations_germany/phenology
Amazing...

I looked at it, as well. Not sure whether I had already posted about it or not?
I plotted the time series with an overlay of diurnal temperature difference to explain the year-to-year or decade-to-decade changes.

My rain project is a spin-off from my phenology project: when I can't explain an oak's behaviour in one year by a parallel change in diurnal temperature difference, I thought I'd best combine that with rainfall data in the preceding weeks, as well. #Tegtmeier

Was man hier auch nicht sieht, und was ich schon in nem anderen Chart gesehen hab: Starkregenereignisse haben sich auf Monatsebene geändert. Im August war es glaub ich, da regnets zB heute weniger oft stark in Hohenpeißenberg als früher. Also Monate auch angucken! Aber das dürfte sich ja zusammen mit den Anomalien erledigen. 🤔

Cool. Ein gutes #Tegtmeier-Projekt. Nützliche Ideen für die nächsten Wochen, wenn ich wieder nachts nicht schlafen kann.
Freu mich im Ernst schon n bisschen auf Stationen aus meiner alten Heimat, wo ich noch Wetterkenntnis aus eigenem Erleben habe. Köln-Stammheim zB. auch. Das gibt dem Projekt doch einen emotionalen Kick aus ganz anderer Ecke.

13/e tbc

Was kann ich erkennen? Was sollte ich also im weiteren Projektverlauf punktuell oder regional herausarbeiten?
Gelb und rot liegen so nah beieinander, dass rot kaum mal auszumachen ist. Also sind #Starkregen-Ereignisse hier keine Sachen von 5 Tagen sondern von höchstens 3 Tagen und danach ist erst mal Ruhe. Notable exceptions: zB der 200mm-Ausschlag vor 1899-11. In dem Monat hat es immer mehr und noch mehr stark geregnet und sich so regelmäßig auf 200mm am 15. Tag angesammelt. Ähnlich lief es beim 240mm Ausschlag vor 1949-11 und bei 300mm nach 1979-02. Aber sonst geht rot in gelb unter. Jedenfalls auf der Y-Achse mit diesem Höchstwert von 300mm. Aha.

3/ #Tegtmeier

Habe seit ein paar Wochen ein Projekt, in dem ich versuche, die #Starkregen-Ereignisse von #Flashfloods und auch von stationären Wetterlagen aus DWD-Daten darzustellen und 'mir so selbst zu erklären, was ich nicht selber weiß'. #Tegtmeier
Ein Zwischenschritt ist, die Niederschlagssummen tageweise aufzuaddieren. Und der nächste Schritt: Charts einer einzelnen Station anzugucken und Muster darin zu erkennen.
Da bin ich grade. Genauer: in den Daten von Hohenpeißenberg, Bayern, auf 957m Höhe, weit ab vom Mikroklima einer Stadt. Dort hat 1879 jemand begonnen, Regendaten zu loggen.

Im Folgenden zeig ich 3 Charts und schreib ich auf, was ich bisher so daraus erkannt habe und was ich weiter untersuchen will.

1/

In Mitteleuropa hatten kath. Kirche, die Franken, Handel und die fortschreitende Durchdringung der Gesellschaft mit der Kunst des Lesens dafür gesorgt, dass Ordnungsprinzipien verlässlich gleich blieben.
In China war das übrigens auch so: die Lesekunst und die Kontinuität der lokalen Verwaltungsmacht hat die Ordnung auch durch Zeiten mongolischer Besetzung oder Epidemien aufrechterhalten.

Ob klimatische Schwankungen allerdings in China, in Europa oder MENA nach AD500 noch mal so lang und weitläufig verheerend waren wie der sogenannte "“4.2 ka event”, weiß ich grad nicht ausm Kopf.
Ich nehme an, dass es solch starken, langen Schwankungen gab. Kandidaten wären so ausm Kopf raus das LIA, little Ice Age, oder die "Mittelalterliche Warmzeit" – aber was währenddessen in welcher Region wettertechnisch passierte, müsste ich recherchieren.

Mach ich vll noch in einem #Tegtmeier Thread.
3/x.

@ZLabe
You probably already muted me and think me an idiot 😁
I probably AM an idiot.
But to "prove" my point wrt NAO, hPa, and their geomagnetic dependency, I want to add the charts I am still working on.
They're still quick 'n dirty, eg, I want to add markers for device change at the weather stations, a K-index from closer to the stations and somesuch. But the trend is visible and it is remarkable, here center-averaged over 36 months to eliminate seasonal impacts.
What you see is geomagnetic Kp-index in grey, NAO in blue. And Zugspitze hPa in green, Warnemünde hPa in brown. From 1932 to Feb 2023.
The remarkable match begins in the 1970s.
#tegtmeier

In Germany, the met office @DeutscherWetterdienst has open data access here https://cdc.dwd.de/portal/
Free of charge.
So here's a time series for monthly air pressure at Hohenpeissenberg (station 2290) from 1781 onwards to February 2023.

It's that 20-40year pattern of recurring maximum and minimum pressure I am investigating.
At other stations, eg, Zugspitze and Warnemünde, the pattern matches that of geomagnetic disturbances AND of the NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation). Sorry, no chart yet, as I am still investigating it. It's gonna be covered in a separate #Tegtmeier toot at some stage.

It's really despiccable that the Australian Met Office charges $100 for a single historical dataset! #AusPOL #Climate #OpenData

"All precipitating energetic particles ionize neutral molecules, e.g., N2 and O2 in the Earth’s atmosphere, and produce chemically active radicals as N, NO, H and OH which can be further transformed by gas phase chemistry. "
Mironova et al 2015:
https://scholar.google.de/scholar?cluster=11438959243020694137&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5

Ha! So OH radicals are indeed produced by incoming solar sputum! 😁 And when these OH radicals are abundant because the sun coughs our way, they can bomb many #methane molecules to bits.

Once a year, I return to this particular idea and each time I find more evidence supporting it.

Here's an old thread with charts where I overlay annual or monthly #CH4 growth rate since 1795 with proxies for incoming solar sputum. But these charts tell the story the other way round: during high solar activity periods, CH4 concentration rises, and in low activity periods, it drops. https://nitter.nl/anlomedad/status/1526124876867723264

It seems, these charts show biological response to the sun, not the response in #atmosphere chemistry .

Another #tegtmeier quest ! 😁

Ha!
The 300ky old mandible found in Jebel Irhoud in Morocco wasn't from an "anatomically modern human" as the two 2017 papers claimed. Its skull was elongated, not globular. So it was but a "natural variability" as I guessed. And it also explains the weird population gap.
https://australian.museum/learn/science/human-evolution/when-and-where-did-our-species-originate/

"New fossil discoveries suggest that modern human physical traits did not emerge as one suite but were gradual. A skull from Jebel Irhoud in Morocco dated to about 300,000 years old, controversially assigned to Homo sapiens, had a modern-looking face but an elongated, archaic-looking braincase. This suggests our globular braincase evolved later and not as part of a fully modern suite of features."

Note to self: lotsa citations on scholar-google for a paper don't necessarily hint to its broadly accepted content but might just as well mean it is strongly contested. So for me as interested layperson its nigh impossible to know when to stop searching..
#Tegtmeier #Pleistocene #OutOfAfrica #archeology

@muenchengene @MatthiasSchmelzer
Die Zusammensetzung der 20% Aktiven heute müsste man wie einen gordischen Knoten durchschneiden. Aber die Persönlichkeitstypen, die sich aktiv beteiligen, bleiben trotzdem die gleichen. Und in dieser, unserer Generation, bleiben auch nach dem Durschneiden diejenigen aktiv, die das heute schon sind.

zB aktive Leute wie #Giegold, der grad die neoliberale #VWL-erin Bartsch von #Blackrock beim #BMWK eingestellt hat, werden auch keinen Wandel produzieren. Giegold ging es ja schon im EU-Parlament nur darum, das kaputte System noch möglichst lange aufrechtzuerhalten. Dass wir mit unseren Klimaschulden nun in der Verantwortung stehen, geplanten #Degrowth und dann #Postgrowth einzuführen, damit andere Staaten es kopieren – wie zB "Pulling a Churchill" mit Triage in Industrie und Sachrationen für die Bevölkerung wie England 1939-56 – ,
dagegen wehrt er sich.
Wissen tut er das. Aber er will nicht.

Jo. Die Zusammensetzung der heute Aktiven 20% ändert sich also nicht. Die gilt es also zu überzeugen. Und zwar termingerecht = budgetgerecht.

....
Mir ist da grad das Hopium ausgegangen und darum hab ich mich temporär via #Tegtmeier ins Pleistozän verzogen 😁

Two last ideas on Jebel Irhoud:
maybe, a Moroccan nationalist bought the 300ky old modern human mandible off Ebay and placed it there. Or maybe, it's not a modern human at all but simply a tall H. helmei, "a natural variability" 😁
That 300ky old knapped (chipped) flint stones were found in the same layer (off Ebay?) isn't proof for the presence of modern humans bc the other homos knew this sort of tool making, as well.

#tegtmeier #Africa #Morocco #archeology #pleistocene

I did not (yet 😁 ) try to answer these questions via more papers... I might tho. But it's a rabbit hole: The more I learn, the less I know.

The other peculiarity /question that arose from looking at the location was: it's relative proximity to the Strait of #Gibraltar: were homo-anything able to cross the strait during ice ages when #sealevel globally where up to 120m lower on average?
I looked for "local" Gibraltar sea level during the Pleistocene but couldn't find info.
If sealevel dropped 200m in parts of the Strait, crossing it on foot might have been possible – If sediment collected due to currents among the hills and valleys there.
If crossing wasn't possible, then seeing the unreachable land a few km away might have been a matter of philosophical debate: are we alone? What and who is out there? Much like our SETI today.
Screenshot from #GeoMapApp

#tegtmeier #pleistocene #archeology #Africa

The plateau is crisscrossed by narrow river beds; next to Jebel Irhoud is a mid-size river bed, and 10km South, a very big river bed meanders from West to East. This big river seems to have a river-bed connection to the plateau at its eastern corner.

Crisscrossed by small river beds... just a second... so maybe, the plateau used to be a lake?! And depending on climate, it wasn't a lake but a plain? And maybe, modern humans preferred fish in their diet and only lived there when it was a lake-side cave?

#tegtmeier #pleistocene #archeology #climate

#Tegtmeier #archeology #Africa #Pleistocene

Two more peculiarities arose wrt the site at Jebel Irhoud. 1) I was surprised that the site is so far away from the ocean, 50km, midway between Marakesh and Safi. So fish was not in their diet which is different from sites in South Africa.
The cave looks out onto a 10x25km wide plateau and is otherwise embedded in hilly terrain, 200-400m elevation, see screenshot from #GoogleEarth . Which must have been very convenient for monitoring game or watching approaching enemies or visitors. All the more I should ask the question wrt population gap of modern humans or of H. helmei in such a comfy cave. Either, archeologists haven't found the layers between 180ky and 300ky yet due to explosions in the quarry. Or could something have happened wrt climate?
The plateau is crisscrossed by narrow river beds; next to Jebel Irhoud is a mid-size river bed, and 10km South, a very big river bed meanders from West to East.

But why had the upper layers at Jebel Irhoud in Morocco since the 60s only returned bones from H. Helmei up to 200ky ago, and never from modern humans? Why the population gap? And if this question arises at Jebel Irhoud, should we ask the same question for other sites in the pretty chart?
I think so.
Altho, the excavation history at Jebel Irhoud is a bit murky. It appears to be a quarry for the little town of the same name. Possibly an active quarry in between expeditions, I couldn't find out. But one paper mentions scattered layers from quarry-related explosions. (Sorry, can't find the paper now in all my open tabs...😁 )

#Tegtmeier #archeology #Africa #Pleistocene

#tegtmeier #pleistocene #archeology #Africa
But in 2017, "New fossils from Jebel Irhoud, Morocco and the pan-African origin of Homo sapiens" by Hublin et al https://www.nature.com/articles/nature22336, reports a new find in North Africa at a site where excavation had begin in the 1960s – and still, they find more...?! This mandible and other facial bones are from a taller specimen than the other bones in the upper layers, and so it is from an anatomically modern human. Richter et al 2017 https://www.nature.com/articles/nature22335 dated flint stones in the same layer at ~315ky via "thermoluminescence"; and uranium in a tooth in the mandible with "electron spin resonance" as ~285ky old.

So the pretty chart from 2016 already needed updating 1 year later!
But...

#Tegtmeier #Pleistocene #
Wrt origins of modern humans.
Oi! What a rabbit hole!

I wrote, modern humans had been around for 300ky and came from Southern Africa. But it turns out, this history is 1) wrong (sorry!😁 ) and 2) not written in stone yet, at all. #Archeology is still developing an agreement of what distinguishes modern humans culturally from their archaic ancestors for one thing, and the other thing is, 50+ years-old excavation sites still reveal unthought-of new twists.

Eg. in 2016, Mirazone-Lahr and Foley on "Human Eevolution in Eastern Africa" https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Marta-Mirazon-Lahr/publication/301232255_Human_Evolution_in_Late_Quaternary_Eastern_Africa/links/59e33487aca2724cbfe36a63/Human-Evolution-in-Late-Quaternary-Eastern-Africa.pdf ( https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-017-7520-5_12 )

published this handy chart below. X-axis is in kiloyears since 800ky. Above the x-axis are the ice ages and interglacials in form of the well-known temperature curve. Left y-axis splits the continent into North, East and South Africa; the right y-axis lists names of archeological sites of the finds.
The coloured dashes within the chart area highlight where remains have been found, and when they lived, and to which homo kind they belonged, Anatomically Modern Humans (red), H. #heidelbergensis (blue), and an advanced form of H. heidelbergensis with larger brain sizes sometimes known as H. #helmei (green).

Very handy chart. From 2016.
But...!

I used to use Lisiecki's reconstruction from 2010 for #CO2 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/15695 but at one point, I found Yamamoto a better fit. IIRC, it was because Yamamoto's CO2 declines gradually from 400ky on, after the interglacial "MIS 11" which I investigated in some depth as best analog for our climate today,
while Lisiecki's CO2 drops abruptly at 380ky. A comparison of both and the strong differences can be seen here https://nitter.nl/pic/orig/media%2FFTv1cyRX0AMoND4.jpg

Lisiecki is the queen of paleo reconstruction, I think, so it seems appropriate to explain why I don't refer to her CO2. I also replaced her d18O versions with others, eg. Starr 2020 and Lawrence 2009 for South and North Atlantic respectively. And recently I found a new age model that better fitted some quirky #pliocene sealevel events I was investigating, compared to Lisiecki's age model "LR04" which is the "age bible" for #paleoclimate, I gather. But I haven't tried yet to see if I can make it work (Hatfield https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GC009677 )

#tegtmeier #TegtmeierBasics