@prachisrivas @Lazarou

Thank you for this. That was very much my view about the situation #harrow in particular. #leicester seems to have been different. I should add that until recently at least #labour has tended to turn a blind eye to association with the #bjp among its activists and even candidates - as the experience in #putney in #UKGeneralElection2017 shows only too well!

In #UKGeneralElection2017 the #Conservatives won a dozen seats in #Scotland in addition to the just one they had held in 2015. This was enough - just - to enable #TheresaMay to stay in office by an arrangement with the #DUP.

So if #labour were to take an extra twenty seats in #scotland it could be enough to offset #VoterSuppression and enable a majority government.

What is even more remarkable is that the lady in question has contributed much of value to the #Conservative party. She served on the group that reviewed their electoral performance in the #UKGeneralElection2017 and made the recommendations that led to a massive improvement in its campaigning and organisational capability ahead of the #UKGeneralElection2019
She has also served as an officer of the #1922Committee - which governs their parliamentary party.

The first development has been what has happened in #Scotland.

The change in First Minister there followed indications that the popularity of the #SNP was falling. Assuming this process continues then projections of parliamentary seats next time round will be revised to the advantage of both #Labour and the #Conservatives - more so for the former - the converse happened in #UKGeneralElection2017

This in turn increases the chances of a majority government.

#UKGeneralElection2017 #Labour

Still the #JacquiSmith claim, however unfounded, is at least different from the much more frequent claims of #treachery and #sabotage made about #Labour performance in 2017. Although these have rather more plausibility to them they also do not stand up to critical examination. It seems highly unlikely that if there had been any such #conspiracy it would have had a material effect on performance in just one out of nine English region albeit an important one.

#UKGeneralElection2017

And crucially this did not happen in one English region - namely #London - where seats gained were below reasonable expectations and where there was more recent information on voting than anywhere in England.

So the claim made on the #BirdSite by Jacqui Smith on Saturday 4th March 2023 and cited subsequently there by Luke Akehurst appears not to stand up!

#UKGeneralElection2017
Nonetheless despite the reported attitude of the then #GeneralSecretary it appears that in five English regions - as well as Wales and probably Scotland - the campaign was adjusted sufficiently to enable as many seats to be won as reasonable expectations. This does suggest an ability to recognise the scope for winning seats and a willingness to adapt tactics accordingly. However this seems unlikely to have been confined to people with twenty years experience.

#UKGeneralElection2017

Furthermore it was reported - and never to my knowledge denied - that the then #GeneralSecretary expressed regret that a few seats had been lost in June 2017 but seemed to show no interest in the fact that rather more had been won let alone any concern that opportunities to win a few more had been lost.

Yet had #Labour won a handful more seats from the Conservatives the history of the last few would most likely have been very different.

#UKGeneralElection2017

It has to be remembered that #Labour had not gained parliamentary seats in a General Election since 1997 - twenty years before. During the latter part of that twenty year period the relevant skill set had been what was require to hold parliamentary seats in difficult circumstances - most notably 2010. Senior staff had tended to learn their trade in those circumstances.

Also there was a genuine need to deploy those skills in three English regions in 2017.

#UKGeneralElection2017

I have seen an extraordinary claim - made by someone who served albeit briefly as Home Secretary in the last #Labour Government - that the presence of staff in #Labour #Headquarters who could remember how to win seats explains why # Labour made gains in 2017 and that their removal afterwards explains the losses in 2019!

I had hoped to have left this subject following the extensive discussion a month or two ago but fear I will have to return to it. You have been warned!

#UKGeneralElection2024

What is more. Someone called James Kanagasooriam has been reported as anticipating a hung parliament.

Mr. Kanagasooriam has an enviable reputation. Much of the unexpectedly strong performance of the Conservatives in Scotland in the #UKGeneralElection2017 has been attributed to his advice and analysis. He is understood to have drawn attention to the #red wall constituencies ahead of the #UKGeneralElection2019

Arguably he is one of best #psephologists going!

#UKGeneralElection2024
#UKGeneralElection2017

I have argued earlier that differences in campaigning performance in just one nation and one English region in 2017 affected the outcome by around a dozen seats - without an exceptional brilliant Conservative campaign in Scotland and an unexpectedly lacklustre performance by Labour in London the Conservatives would not have had enough seats to make the arrangement with the DUP that kept them in office.

So campaigning performance matters!

#UKGeneralElection2024
#UKGeneralElection2017

It follows that small variations in the outcome in terms of parliamentary seats could well be consequential in 2014 as they were in 2017 but would not have been in 2019.

The difference between a Conservative majority government (or one dependent on the DUP) and a hung parliament would be consequential in one or more ways. So would be a Labour majority government as against both a hung parliament and an arrangement with the Lib Dems.

#UKGeneralElection2017

By contrast the Conservatives made extremely effective use of the knowledge they had gained in Scotland.

Without the gains made in Scotland they would not have had a parliamentary majority even with the support of the Democratic Unionist Party.

The same would have been the case if Labour had gained just six more seats in London - which it could reasonably have been expected to do.

Reasons for success in Scotland are well documented. Those for failure in London not.

#UKGeneralElection2017

Best to do a short recap of where I got to in my discussion of the 2017 General Election.

It was not expected - political parties were poorly equipped and even more poorly informed about potential voters.

In such circumstances actual campaigning performance was reasonable. The only exceptions seem to have been where there was better and more recent knowledge of voters - namely London and Scotland. It seems that Labour failed to use that knowledge effectively in London.