#CPI rose from 296.797 in December to 299.71 in January. If you annualize that, it's 10%. The year over year increase was 6.4%, down from December's 6.5% but above the market forecast of 6.2%.

There is no way to squint at the numbers that can make it look like inflation is under control, just like I said when the December numbers came out as pundits like Robert Reich were claiming inflation was conquered by his hero Biden. We've had a mild winter while the rest of the world has been slowing down. That's all.

#inflation #USecon #economics

If you want to try to claim that #inflation is being driven purely by the supply side, you have to explain why the job market is so tight. Supply side driven inflation would by definition cause a drop in consumption and thus a reduction in overall economic activity, but that's not happening.

I believe the reason is that while the money supply has fallen slightly, the reduction in inflation we've seen has been driven primarily by falling #EnergyPrices. Which means that as energy prices start to rise again, inflation will reappear, and the economy will slow down.

#USEcon #economics #macroeconomics

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/03/1153912911/jobs-labor-unemployment-wages-inflation-federal-reserve

This is the #US #LaborForceParticipationRate. According to this, the 2008 recession ended in early 2009, yet the labor force participitation rate didn't bottom out until 2015. There are a number of other measures such as Fed-owned MBSes that show things didn't start to recover until mid 2015 as well.

Think of this any time someone tells you the economy isn't in recession or that the recession will be short. #GDP growth means nothing.

#economics #USEcon #macroeconomics

You can only play chicken with the #DebtCeiling so many times before people stop caring. Which is not to say it can't still cause harm; #WallStreet is just confident the government will do everything it can to protect the rich.

#uspol #usecon

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/30/biden-debt-ceiling-problem-wall-street-00079957

"And, second, those who confidently asserted it would take five years of pain to wring inflation out of the system have already been refuted. Inflation has fallen dramatically, with the December 2022 seasonally adjusted consumer prices index coming in just 1% above that for June."

I'll believe it's been refuted if there's still low #inflation in July.

#economics #USecon

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/27/how-should-you-fight-inflation-spoiler-alert-not-with-interest-rate-rises

"A prolonged default could be devastating, with crashing markets and panic-driven layoffs if confidence evaporates in a cornerstone of the global economy, the US treasury notes."

Again I ask you, what would investors invest in that they would consider safer than US treasuries and which would be able to absorb the volume without yields tanking?

The stock market will suffer, sure, but a default that everyone knows is political theater isn't going to cause total pandemonium. What might cause pandemonium is a default with no expectation that an actual deal can be reached. But this is a very different situation than the Speaker election, because there are enough Republicans in competitive districts that they will eventually make a deal with the Democrats no matter how much it pisses off the extremists.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/19/us-debt-ceiling-reached-biden-republican-face-off

#economics #USecon #debtceiling #congress #default #USdefault #bonds #treasuries #USdebt #USbonds #uspol

"A prolonged default could be devastating, with crashing markets and panic-driven layoffs if confidence evaporates in a cornerstone of the global economy, the US treasury notes."

Again I ask you, what would investors invest in that they would consider safer than US treasuries and which would be able to absorb the volume without yields tanking?

The stock market will suffer, sure, but a default that everyone knows is political theater isn't going to cause total pandemonium. What might cause pandemonium is a default with no expectation that an actual deal can be reached. But this is a very different situation than the Speaker election, because there are enough Republicans in competitive districts that they will eventually make a deal with the Democrats no matter how much it pisses off the extremists.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/19/us-debt-ceiling-reached-biden-republican-face-off

#economics #USecon #debtceiling #congress

“Participants noted that, because monetary policy worked importantly through financial markets, an unwarranted easing in financial conditions, especially if driven by a misperception by the public of the Committee’s reaction function, would complicate the Committee’s effort to restore price stability.”- FOMC #usecon #DontFightTheFed

"The layoffs are expected to affect many thousands of employees and an announcement is planned to come as soon as Wednesday, according to the people."

#Facebook #Meta #layoffs #usecon

http://archive.today/PipR6