#VoterSuppression #voterIDrequirements

I had thought - from earlier wording by the #electoralcommission that the new #voterIDrequirements did not apply in three parliamentary byelections in July. It seems I was wrong. This does not affect the analysis for #selbyandainsty and for #somertonandfrome very much. It does, however, have a profound impact on #uxbridgeandsouthruislip . So much so that I will need to revisit it. You have been warned!

@johnelalamo

Exactly. And the first thing has to be for those responsible for the running of the campaign and the selection process for the candidate to accept their share of responsibility for the result in #uxbridgeandsouthruislip !

#ukpol #byelections Current polls suggest that #labour is likely to win but with a lower probability than was the case for #uxbridgeandsouthruislip - so not exactly a guaranteed result. And the #voterIDrequirements changes are yet to be factored in. So rather uncertain. There may also be a another #byelection in #tamworth if #chrispincher stands down. And presumably eventually #nadinedorries will actually resign although she has spent longer resigning than #liztruss served as prime minister!

There were two issues about #ulez - the extension itself and the way the local #labour campaign in #uxbridgeandsouthruislip handled it. The #ulezextension was bound to be problematic because of the way the #conservative government had both mandated it and made it costly and difficult to mitigate its impact on those affected by its introduction. Concerns about it were bound to be particularly marked shortly before it was due to come into effect - another timing issue with the byelection.

There are at least five possible explanations for the near miss by #labour in #uxbridgeandsouthruislip . Two of them relate to #ulez extension. The other three are the #india issue , the absence of student voters and #voterIDrequirements . These last alone would have been more than enough to save the seat for the #conservatives had they been in force (which I do not believe they were!). The reduction in the student vote due to the timing of the election would have helped the #conservatives .

The seven misconduct byelections were in two #labour seats and in five #conservative ones. #labour lost one misconduct byelection #hartlepool to the #conservatives - their sole gain! - but retained the other #cityofchester very comfortably. The #conservatives lost four out of five - #northshropshire , #somertonandfrome , #tivertonandhoniton and #wakefield - but just retained #uxbridgeandsouthruislip . #wakefield was taken by #labour while the other three went to the #libdems !

If the Labour party seriously thinks they "lost" #uxbridgeandsouthruislip due to a rational issue around ULEZ, they are crazy.

This is the constituency that knowingly voted for the over-stuffed tie-handle bin bag Boris Johnson in their many thousands.

These are not people whose opinion should dictate anything, let alone air quality measures for all of London.

Looks like we're still dealing with too many people using their vote to make a point, rather than choose a representative.

If a constituency is majority Tory voters who are daft enough to vote Tory because a Labour mayor is having to implement a Tory policy, ULEZ, without full financial support from the Tory government then it’s best to focus Labour efforts elsewhere. #UxbridgeAndSouthRuislip #GTTO

Pink News: Laurence Fox stands in Boris Johnson’s former seat and loses his deposit … again https://www.thepinknews.com/2023/07/21/laurence-fox-uxbridge-by-election-result-deposit/ #LGBT #LGBTQ #Trans #Lesbian #2SLGBTQ #UxbridgeandSouthRuislip #by-election #LaurenceFox #Politics #News #UK

Pink News: Laurence Fox stands in Boris Johnson’s former seat and loses his deposit … again https://www.thepinknews.com/2023/07/21/laurence-fox-uxbridge-by-election-result-deposit/ #LGBT #LGBTQ #Trans #Lesbian #2SLGBTQ #UxbridgeandSouthRuislip #by-election #LaurenceFox #Politics #News #UK

Drei Nachwahlen zum Britischen Unterhaus – Was in deutschen Medien nicht berichtet wird [ScienceFiles-Wahlanalyse] https://sciencefiles.org/2023/07/21/drei-nachwahlen-zum-britischen-unterhaus-was-in-deutschen-medien-nicht-berichtet-wird-sciencefiles-wahlanalyse/ #UxbridgeandSouthRuislip #SomertonandFrome #HouseofCommons #DavidWarburton #SelbyandAinsty #BorisJohnson #By-Election #NigelAdams #LibDims #Wahlen #Labour

Labour have failed to win Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Really wasn’t expecting this at all. National polling suggested Labour should have won by a twenty point margin

I suppose this is what happens when you announce in the same week that a vote for Labour will change nothing

#Labour #Tories #KeirStarmer #ByElection #UxbridgeAndSouthRuislip #UKPol

The #conservatives held #uxbridgeandsouthruislip by a very much reduced majority. roughly 500 votes. Still a swing to #labour - 6.7% - but not quite enough to win.

A recount has been announced in #uxbridgeandsouthruislip ! Result delayed for some time.

Meanwhile in A Plague On Both Their Houses news:
Uxbridge & South Ruislip, turnout:
46.23%
#UxbridgeAndSouthRuislip

Hoping @CountBinface humiliates Laurence Fox.
#UxbridgeAndSouthRuislip

Count Binface would get my vote if I was in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency! #CountBinface #VoteBinface #UxbridgeAndSouthRuislip #TheCrownAndTreaty #MoveThatHandDryerInTheToiletsToAMoreSensiblePosition

RT from The Poodle Club (@thepoodleclub)

Count Binface will be making a rare Earth appearance in Sydenham in August! Tickets now available for this unforgettable night

@Love_SE4 @CountBinface @lewishamlocal @SydenhamSociety @thepengetourist #se26 #UxbridgeAndSouthRuislip #byelection
https://www.wegottickets.com/event/586744

Original tweet : https://twitter.com/thepoodleclub/status/1674690597205016576

Holy cow. The list of candidates for the #UxbridgeAndSouthRuislip #ByElection is just crazy.
They even have an Anti Ulez candidate (K Hamilton).
Not sure whether I want to laugh or cry #UKPol