On that basis #labour would have won by about the same amount as the #Conservatives actually did were it not for #VoterSuppression through new #voterIDrequirements . This is atroubling rsult - not just the revelation that I may suffered from "hubristic incompetence"!

#VoterSuppression #voterIDrequirements

I had thought - from earlier wording by the #electoralcommission that the new #voterIDrequirements did not apply in three parliamentary byelections in July. It seems I was wrong. This does not affect the analysis for #selbyandainsty and for #somertonandfrome very much. It does, however, have a profound impact on #uxbridgeandsouthruislip . So much so that I will need to revisit it. You have been warned!

#ukpol #byelections Current polls suggest that #labour is likely to win but with a lower probability than was the case for #uxbridgeandsouthruislip - so not exactly a guaranteed result. And the #voterIDrequirements changes are yet to be factored in. So rather uncertain. There may also be a another #byelection in #tamworth if #chrispincher stands down. And presumably eventually #nadinedorries will actually resign although she has spent longer resigning than #liztruss served as prime minister!

#ukpol Breaking News!

It has just been announced on the #bbc - no doubt a mention that provoke a response from #vigilantes ! - that there will be a #byelection in #rutherglenandhamiltonwest as a result of a valid #recall #petition . The date will be set next month when #parliament reassembles. This means not until October at the earliest. This means also that new #voterIDrequirements for parliamentary elections will be in force - as it seems they were not in July!

To return to the subject of the impact of #voterIDrequirements having changed in #britain I have tried to add a paper on this to test out the system. Hope it works!

There are at least five possible explanations for the near miss by #labour in #uxbridgeandsouthruislip . Two of them relate to #ulez extension. The other three are the #india issue , the absence of student voters and #voterIDrequirements . These last alone would have been more than enough to save the seat for the #conservatives had they been in force (which I do not believe they were!). The reduction in the student vote due to the timing of the election would have helped the #conservatives .