"COVID is back" only in the sense that media+govts are talking about it again. It never went away.

Just because you hadn't been hearing the word doesn't mean it wasn't being spoken about, knowingly or otherwise.

While the aforementioned entities don't suffer symptoms or illnesses that necessitate explanation, they do discuss delays, worker shortages, supply chain disruption, etc.

On the other hand, an individual must use euphemisms like allergies, summer cold, under the weather, out sick, fatigue, brain fog, diabetes, autoimmune disease, cancer, natural causes, etc, to gloss over new or ongoing health issues.

#CovidIsNotOver #MaskUp #WearARespirator #BringBackMasks

Kids respirators update:

The Kimberly-Clark duckbill N95 in small (54066) seems to fit *excellent* on my 3 and 5yo; 1yo's head is almost as big as 3, so expect it'll fit well, too

These are the first ones that seem to fit well enough to bother with a DIY qualitative fit test -- hoping to do one soon 🤞

Downside is the straps. They're good on first wear, but stretch enough that I assume fit will be worse, hence. There might be space on the edges of the 'bill' to staple on some new ones, though; might test a few hacks

Cost <$100CAD for a 50pk

#CovidIsAirborne #MaskUp #WearARespirator #N95 #BringBackMasks @novid

So.. Halyard duckbill N95s in small (46827); anyone have a source in 🇨🇦?

#MaskUp #ForKids #WearARespirator #BringBackMasks @novid

There's one layer of swiss cheese that I would never omit:

Respirators.

This is the only layer that can prevent close-proximity transmission.

As long as you're wearing one that you know seals to your face and isn't soaked or super old, it's going to protect you from all the invisible ways #TrojanAir can get into your nose and mouth.

And even if you haven't proven that it seals, it's damp, or you've worn it a bunch of times before, it's still going to provide more protection than any other layer(s).

Please, please don't think you can compensate for being unmasked by utilizing combinations of other layers.

All the other layers are designed to make a respirator more effective or provide backup in the event a respirator lets a bit of something through. Even vaccines were trialled in the context of universal masking; their original efficacy numbers are a product of that environment.

#MakeYourMaskWorkBetter

If you can't get your hands on any respirators, reach out and I'll connect you to someone in your region who can help. If I have to ship you some myself, I will.

#MaskUp #WearARespirator #N95 #FFR #P100 #Elastomeric

@novid

Wastewater numbers just aren't reliable enough. Intra-wave, perhaps; certainly not inter-wave.

https://mastodon.social/@augieray/110987236611321323

If different variants can have different exhaled viral load, it's reasonable to assume the same of excretions.

And really, any unique characteristic that can be used against the virus is something that's going to be selected out as long as we keep giving it trillions of opportunities to mutate.

#CovidIsNotOver #MaskUp #WearARespirator #BringBackMasks @novid

I think we'd best have a conversation about mask efficacy in the context of time-to-infection, viral load and other highly-speculative estimations that have been proffered over the course of the pandemic thus far.

You cannot build a rock-solid scientific model on top of such things.

#CovidIsAirborne #MaskUp #WearARespirator #N95 #P100 #FitTest #Wuhan #Alpha #Delta #Omicron #ForeverOmicron

To all propagand... er... “journal”ists whom it may concern,

I-NoLonger-GAF what “health officials” think isn't “concerning”, or any other opinion they have about the risks/threats that infectious diseases don't pose. Let's be real: after the past three years, they've proven they're all ‘officious’ and no ‘health’.

#CovidIsAirborne #CovidIsNotOver #MaskUp #WearARespirator #BringBackMasks

#Covid outcomes

I see the medium to long term outcomes splitting into three groups (survivors -- people who died early excepted)

1. Early #COVIDCareless This group is testing how many infections a body can take before breaking down. The number will vary, and it won't be uniform, but I expect 2024-25 will see this group crossing double digit infections, and showing significant death.

1a. Late #COVIDCareless This group abandoned precautions sometime this year or last .. see #1 with a delay of 2-3 years.

2. Infected 1x (or low #s) + #CovidCareful : Still going to suffer long-term immune deficiencies, until underlying persistence is tackled. 10yrs? Some of this group might stumble on to a prophylactic that works.

3. Uninfected + #CovidCareful Very small numbers here, should see lifespans pre-2019 or longer as they are now also not getting sick from flus etc.

Unfortunately group 1/1a are the vast majority of the population.

Thoughts?

#collapse
#CovidIsNotOver
#WearARespirator

@knizer this article's got a bunch of good data on #CO2Monitors; recommendations are at the end and are more or less the same units I would consider trustworthy:

https://breathesafeair.com/carbon-dioxide-monitors/

There's a really good sale on that particular Inkbird right now, too

@kissane
@novid #CovidIsAirborne #MaskUp #WearARespirator #BringBackMasks

@jmcrookston @crowgirl
Ever since OG Omicron, the number of people not infected at least 1x is effectively zero at a population scale. And the uninfected population is shrinking daily as basically most of society has given up.

Reinfections continue unabated and evidence from Japan shows accelerating reinfections on average.

Evidence is accumulating that even a single 'mild' infection will cause long term issues due to immune overstimulation/organ damage.

Has the majority crossed 2x infections? I'd bet yes, if you account for asymptomatic infections.

Effectively everyone outside the #CovidCareful + uninfected -- 100% effectively -- are headed to the 'Finding out' phase.

#CovidIsNotOver
#WearARespirator

@novid ☝️☝️❓❔

#MaskUp #WearARespirator #BringBackMasks

@claude_cahun

@trendless @novid
Argh!

With widespread seeding across effectively the entire population of the planet including immunocompromised (current & future) patients, we are just guaranteeing that we'll have new dangerous variants.

There's no way to chase these variants without #ZeroCovid .

When will we wake up?

#CovidIsNotOver
#WearARespirator

>SARS-CoV-2 is a protean virus. It seems designed to reinfect a previously infected host, changing its outer coat as well as some of its properties.

>We all remember Omicron and how it swept the world that had already experienced several waves of Covid cases. There were so many changes in the outer spike protein of Omicron that previous infections did little to protect from new infections. How much previous infection protects from disease still remains in question.

>BA.2… contained 54 amino acid mutations from the original Wuhan virus. The cause for concern with BA.2.86 is that it contains 41 amino acid mutations on top of the BA.2 mutations, totaling 95 mutations from the Wuhan virus.

>BA.2.86 is likely a common descendant of one of the original Omicron variants, BA.2, [?and a more recent variant, XBB?]. In the spike protein of BA.2.86, we see 60 amino acid mutations, including substitutions and deletions. For context, the Alpha variant, which fueled the second-largest surge of cases in the United States behind the initial Omicron surge, contained just ten spike amino acid mutations. Dr. Eric Topol describes BA.2.86 as "Omicron Squared."

>…the updated Covid vaccine set to be released this fall is designed to protect against the XBB.1.5 variant, but not BA.2.86. The hope is that the vaccine will protect against BA.2.86 should it widely circulate, but it would be unsurprising if the variant evaded booster protection, given the degree to which BA.2.86 is mutated in the spike is extreme.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2023/08/24/covid-19-the-shapeshifting-protean-virus/

#CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #MaskUp #WearARespirator #BringBackMasks @novid

#Covid + medical community
Recently I shared a preprint and it's implications (https://zeroes.ca/@mathew1927/110901657480421942) with a doctor who's been pretty forward thinking, e.g. they don't think you should wait to try promising treatments.

Their reaction left me shaken, the denial runs really deep.

"Nothing new here, wonder how other viruses fare"
"2 years is not forever"
"Don't look at this with a depressed eye"
"As a layperson, theres a risk of misinterpreting the implications, more studies are needed"
"Think about coping"

No one's going to step up and stand out (except for @fitterhappieraj) who's been right from the very beginning.

We're on our own.

#CovidIsNotOver
#WearARespirator
#CovidCausesImmuneDeficiency

It was mild, was it? Just a lil' cold?

Get back to me in a few years.

#CovidIsNotOver #MaskUp #WearARespirator #BringBackMasks
No[More]Vid for me, thanks 🙅 :mastomask:

#CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #MaskUp #WearARespirator #BringBackMasks @novid

I continue to be flabbergasted at [people in general, but especially] healthcare professionals in 🇨🇦 who question masking. This is *still* PHAC's current guidance for community settings:

Actually, a little panic would be a good thing. What there *really* is no need for is more artifice.

#CovidIsNotOver #MaskUp #WearARespirator

#Covid worst case scenarios

Are we as a group (#COVIDCareful) soft-pedaling how bad things could get? Certainly I don't see any experts putting their necks out there.

Recently a preprint came out that basically shows everyone infected has chronic T-cell activation years after the infection with very little attenuation with time past the acute phase. There's little difference between those with LongCovid and 'recovered'
[https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.07.27.23293177v1.full-text]

Vaccination provides little to no help in this case.
[https://zeroes.ca/@mathew1927/110877523187131204]

If this is caused by persistence (likely IMHO), unless cleared it could continue forever, basically rendering *the vast majority of the population* immune-compromised.

How many years do we have before incidental infections kill the infected?

Meanwhile except for the #CovidCareful, everyone is getting reinfected at a greater frequency (3-4x/yr -- Japanese data: https://nordot.app/1044409895176618680]

All indications are that repeated reinfections makes everything worse.

Do we even have 10yrs left??
#Collapse

#CovidIsNotOver
#COVIDisAirborne
#WearARespirator

h/t @fitterhappierAJ

Excellent thread on 3M #P100 filter options by @TransitBiker ☝️☝️☝️☝️

#MaskUp #WearARespirator #COVIDisAirborne #CovidIsNotOver #ElastoLeagueUnite @novid

Why should everyone #WearARespirator ?