Here's the latest variant picture for the Australian Capital Territory (ACT).

The XBB.1.9.* "Hyperion" clan (61%) is now dominant, as the data predicted a couple of weeks ago. It's share has doubled in that time.

The XBB.1.5.* "Kraken" clan (24%) has fallen steadily. XBF.* "Bythos" (9%) can get in the bin.

This is a very unusual picture for Australia - the only jurisdiction I've seen with XBB.1.9.* so clearly dominant.

The sample volumes seem representative up to April 4.

Interactive genomic sequencing dataviz, code, acknowledgements and more info here:
https://github.com/Mike-Honey/covid-19-genomes#readme

#COVID19 #Australia #ACT #Canberra #XBB_1_9_1 #Hyperion #XBB_1_5 #Kraken @auscovid19

China is still dominated by the BA.5.* clan of variants (61%), but the leading variants from foreign countries are starting to appear. They all show rapid growth:

- XBB.1.5.* "Kraken" (13%) with a growth advantage of 25% per day vs BA.5.*
- XBB.1.9.* "Hyperion" (10%) with a growth advantage of 18%
- XBB.1.16.* "Arcturus" (2%) with a growth advantage of 10%

Note the recent sample sizes are quite small, especially after April 7.

#COVID19 #China #XBB_1_5 #Kraken #XBB_1_9_1 #Hyperion #XBB_1_16 #Arcturus
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Here's the latest variant picture for New South Wales.

XBB.1.5 "Kraken" (27%) is dominant.

XBB.1.9.1 "Hyperion" (13%) is challenging.

EG.1 (9%) is descended from XBB.1.9.2.

The L2 summary view shows the XBB.1.9.* clan of lineages are within striking distance of the XBB.1.5.* clan.

The sample volumes seem representative up to March 22.

Interactive genomic sequencing dataviz, code, acknowledgements and more info here:
https://github.com/Mike-Honey/covid-19-genomes#readme

#COVID19 #Australia #WA #Perth #XBB_1_5 #Kraken #XBB_1_9_1 #Hyperion @auscovid19

Here's the latest variant picture for Western Australia.

XBB.1.5 "Kraken" (21%) is dominant, although with a very diverse set of variants that's remarkably low.

XBB.1.9.1 "Hyperion" (14%) is rising sharply. It has a 3% daily growth advantage, which predicts a recent crossover.

The sample volumes seem representative up to March 21.

Interactive genomic sequencing dataviz, code, acknowledgements and more info here:
https://github.com/Mike-Honey/covid-19-genomes#readme

#COVID19 #Australia #WA #Perth #XBB_1_5 #Kraken #XBB_1_9_1 #Hyperion @auscovid19

Here's the latest variant picture for the Australian Capital Territory (ACT).

XBB.1.5 "Kraken" (39%) is dominant.

XBB.1.9.1 "Hyperion" (29%) is in hot pursuit. It has a 3% daily growth advantage, which predicts a recent crossover.

The sample volumes seem representative up to March 21.

Interactive genomic sequencing dataviz, code, acknowledgements and more info here:
https://github.com/Mike-Honey/covid-19-genomes#readme

#COVID19 #Australia #ACT #Canberra #XBB_1_5 #Kraken #XBB_1_9_1 #Hyperion @auscovid19

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia. XBB.1.5 "Kraken" (21%) was dominant, but looks about to overtaken by XBB.1.9.1 "Hyperion" (21%).

CH.1.1.11 - a child of CH.1.1 "Orthrus" - (16%) has been rising steadily.

XBF "Bythos" (10%) is in a steady decline.

Victoria has only reported 2 samples of the new XBB.1.16 "Arcturus" variant so far, and 1 sample of the new "Deltacron" XBC.1.6.

The sample volumes seem representative up to 14 March.

Interactive genomic sequencing dataviz, code, acknowledgements and more info here:
https://github.com/Mike-Honey/covid-19-genomes#readme

#COVID19 #Australia #VIC #Melbourne #XBB_1_5 #Kraken #XBB_1_9_1 #Hyperion @auscovid19

Here's the latest variant picture for Singapore:

After a long lull under the XBB.1 "Hippogryph" variant, XBB.1.5 "Kraken" (22%) is the most successful new variant, followed by XBB.1.9.1 "Hyperion" (15%) and XBB.2.3 (10%).

Recent samples look representative, up to March 13.

As well as updating to the latest Nextclade build (which catches new lineages like XBB.1.16 and XBB.2.3), I've also adjusted my "Lineage L2" categorisation to split out the XBB.1.5.*, XBB.1.9.* and XBB.1.16.* branches. My general approach is to try to separate where there appears to be a significant reinfection risk, capable of sparking a new wave.

#COVID19 #Singapore #XBB_1_5 #Kraken #XBB_1_9_1 #Hyperion
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Here's the latest SARS-CoV-2 variant picture for New Zealand:

XBB.1.5 "Kraken" (36%) became dominant in early March.

It's main rival recently has been the resurgent CH.1.1 "Orthrus" (20%). This variant is hanging on impressively in NZ - in other countries where CH.1.1 was strong, it had faded below 10% by mid-February, as XBB.1.5 took over.

Newcomer XBB.1.9.1 "Hyperion" (7%) has been rising steadily.

XBF "Bythos" has faded below 5%.

Recent sample sizes are very solid and recent, up to March 11 (see grey column chart). However the cadence of updates appears to be roughly monthly, unfortunately.

#COVID19 #NZ #XBB_1_5 #CH_1_1 #Orthrus #Kraken #XBB_1_9_1 #Hyperion #XBF #Bythos
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With the XBB.1.5 "Kraken" variant dominant across the United States, attention should turn to the next variant to drive the next wave.

The leading candidate are the siblings XBB.1.9.1 "Hyperion" and XBB.1.9.2. Through the wonders of convergent evolution, both independently acquired the advantageous Spike F486P mutation.

Nationally, XBB.1.9.1 is on a steep growth trend past 3%, while XBB.1.9.2 has also risen to 1%.

#COVID19 #US #XBB_1_9_1 #Hyperion XBB_1_9_2
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Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom:

The XBB.1.5 "Kraken" lineage (42%) is still dominant. The next lineage rising to replace it is XBB.1.9.1 "Hyperion" (14%). As well as the advantageous Spike F486P mutation (also found on XBB.1.5, XBF etc), XBB.1.9.1 gains a further advantage from non-Spike mutations: Orf1a G1819S, Orf1a T4175I and Orf9b I5T. It's growth appears to be accelerating since the start of March.

Recent samples look representative, up to 7 March.

#COVID19 #UK #XBB_1_5 #Kraken #XBB_1_9_1 #Hyperion #XBB_1_16 #Arcturus
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China is still dominated by the BA.5.* clan of variants, but there are steady reports of other more recent variants, possibly building momentum.

Here's the latest variant picture for China, excluding the BA.5.* variants. XBB.1.5 "Kraken" (3%) seems the most prominent. XBB.1.9.1 "Hyperion" (1%) is also present.

Outside of China, those newer variants have caused significant waves of infections with many reinfections, as they are so far evolved from the BA.5.* variants that natural immunity from prior infection did not provide much protection.

Note the recent sample sizes are very small, especially after 3 March.

#COVID19 #China #XBB_1_5 #Kraken #XBB_1_9_1 #Hyperion

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom:

The XBB.1.5 "Kraken" lineage (34%) is still dominant, driving the current wave.

The next lineage rising to replace it is XBB.1.9.1 "Hyperion" (~7%). As well as the advantageous Spike F486P mutation (also found on XBB.1.5, XBF etc), XBB.1.9.1 gains a further advantage from non-Spike mutations: Orf1a G1819S, Orf1a T4175I and Orf9b I5T.

Recent samples look representative, up to 17 February.

#COVID19 #UK #XBB_1_5 #Kraken #XBB_1_9_1 #Hyperion
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Here's the latest variant picture for Singapore:

After a long lull under the XBB.1 "Hippogryph" variant, XBB.1.5 "Kraken" (17%) is the most successful new variant, launching a new wave.

There have been serious challenges from CH.1.1 "Orthrus" (13%), nd XBF "Bythos" (reached 10%, possibly fading).

The latest challenger is XBB.1.9.1 "Hyperion" (10%).

Recent samples look representative, up to 10 February.

#COVID19 #Singapore #XBB_1_5 #Kraken #XBB_1_9_1 #Hyperion
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Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom:

The XBB.1.5 "Kraken" lineage (34%) is still dominant.

The next lineage rising to replace it is XBB.1.9.1 "Hyperion". As well as the advantageous Spike F486P mutation (also found on XBB.1.5, XBF etc), XBB.1.9.1 gains a further advantage from non-Spike mutations: Orf1a G1819S, Orf1a T4175I and Orf9b I5T. Rapid growth has resumed to 6%.

Recent samples look representative, up to 7 February.

#COVID19 #UK #XBB_1_5 #Kraken #XBB_1_9_1 #Hyperion
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Here's the latest SARS-CoV-2 variant picture for New Zealand:

The XBF "Bythos" variant has grown steadily to 21%, and is now the dominant individual variant. XBB.1.5 "Kraken" has grown to 10%.

The BA.2.75.* clan variants are led by CH.1.1 "Orthrus" at 16%, followed by child CH.1.1.7 at 14%. BR.2.1 "Cerastes" is at 10%.

The BQ.* and BA.5.* variants continue to fade, down to 5% or less.

Definitely a swarm of variants about, but the trend is towards the recombinant variants with the Spike F486P mutation: XBF and XBB.1.5,

Recent sample sizes are very solid and recent, up to February 6 (see grey column chart).

#COVID19 #NZ #XBF #Bythos #XBB_1_5 #Kraken #XBB_1_9_1 #Hyperion
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The leading candidate to replace the XBB.1.5 "Kraken" lineage around the world appears to be the new XBB.1.9.1 variant, probably originating from Indonesia.

Here's the breakdown of the leading Asian countries reporting XBB.1.9.1. It has quite quickly reached around 25% frequency in Indonesia, Pakistan and Malaysia.

As well as the advantageous Spike F486P mutation (also found on XBB.1.5, XBF etc), XBB.1.9.1 gains a further advantage from non-Spike mutations: Orf1a G1819S, Orf1a T4175I and Orf9b I5T.

#COVID19 #XBB_1_9_1
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